AGP Executive Report

Climate & Livelihoods: Renewed fighting in Baidoa is worsening Somalia’s humanitarian crisis, while flood fears ahead of El Niño have forced displaced families from shelter near Beledweyne, putting livelihoods and food security under further strain. Shipping & Trade: The UN says Yemen has returned to full-scale war, with attacks threatening Red Sea shipping and energy markets; thousands have fled across the Bab el-Mandeb to Somalia and Djibouti. Investment & Infrastructure: Somalia is pitching its strategic resources to European investors, while Turkey’s planned spaceport adds a major infrastructure project to its expanding partnership with Mogadishu. Food Security: Somalia and Algeria are seeking stronger cooperation on agriculture and food security, as Oman and Somalia have also discussed closer food-security ties.

Infrastructure & Technology: Türkiye says it is building a spaceport in Somalia, adding to a partnership that includes offshore energy exploration. African engineering leaders also urged wider use of AI and digital building tools to tackle skills gaps and improve project delivery. Trade & Investment: Somalia has called on European investors to explore its strategic resources, while talks with Saudi Arabia focused on trade and investment. Somalia and Algeria also sought stronger cooperation on agriculture and food security. Shipping & Logistics: Rising piracy off Somalia threatens global shipping as regional conflict puts pressure on Red Sea routes. Disruptions around Bab al-Mandab could raise freight and fuel costs for businesses across the region. Agriculture & Climate: El Niño flood preparations are straining livelihoods in South West State; in Beledweyne, families displaced by conflict and drought have been evicted from homes used as flood shelters, leaving some without protection as rains begin.

Climate & Agriculture: Somalia’s South West State is stepping up preparations for forecast El Niño floods, while Beledweyne families face displacement as residents move to safer ground. The risks threaten homes, livestock and livelihoods already hit by drought and storms. Investment & Infrastructure: Somalia is seeking European investors for its strategic resources, while Turkey has announced plans for a spaceport in the country as part of its push toward a 2027 lunar mission. Food Security: Somalia and Algeria are seeking stronger cooperation in agriculture and food security; Oman and Somalia have also discussed food security ties. Trade & Shipping: A rise in Somali piracy, alongside Houthi threats near the Gulf of Aden, is adding pressure to vital regional shipping routes and risks raising costs for importers.

Climate Preparedness: El Niño forecasts are raising the risk of floods and food insecurity across the Horn. In Beledweyne, hundreds of displaced families have lost shelter as homeowners prepare for flooding, underscoring the need for early support to protect livelihoods. Shipping and Logistics: Somali piracy incidents have risen to 25 by mid-September, up from nine in 2025, as naval forces shift to other regional crises. Disruption around Bab el-Mandeb could add detours and costs for businesses and consumers. Space Industry: Türkiye says it is building a spaceport in Somalia as part of its ambitions for a lunar mission, a proposed project that could bring new infrastructure and technical activity.

Flood Readiness: Hundreds of displaced families in Beledweyne have lost rent-free shelter as homeowners prepare for forecast El Niño floods. In Bari, a storm has also left families struggling to rebuild homes and livelihoods. Shipping & Logistics: Somali piracy incidents rose to 25 by mid-September, from nine in 2025, as naval forces shifted to other regional conflicts. Renewed Houthi threats near Bab el-Mandeb could add rerouting costs and push up fuel and fertilizer prices. Investment & Agriculture: Somalia is urging European investors to explore its strategic resources, while Somalia and Algeria have discussed stronger cooperation on agriculture and food security. Infrastructure: Türkiye’s plans for a spaceport in Somalia put aerospace infrastructure on the country’s development agenda.

Climate Readiness: South West State is coordinating with aid agencies ahead of El Niño rains, as flood fears threaten riverine communities and livelihoods. A storm in Bari has already left hundreds of families struggling to recover after losing homes, livestock and small businesses. Shipping and Logistics: Somali piracy incidents rose to 25 by mid-September, up from nine in 2025, as naval forces shift to other regional crises and more ships pass the coast. Infrastructure: Türkiye says it is building a spaceport in Somalia as part of its space ambitions, including a planned lunar mission in 2027. Investment: Somalia has urged European investors to explore its strategic resources, while Somalia and Algeria discussed stronger cooperation on agriculture and food security.

Maritime Trade: Somali piracy is rising as naval forces shift to other regional crises. By mid-September, 25 incidents had been recorded around the Horn of Africa, up from nine in 2025, raising risks for shipping already facing disrupted routes and higher insurance costs. Livelihoods and Flood Readiness: A storm in Bari’s Qandala district destroyed homes and killed people and livestock, leaving hundreds of families struggling to recover. South West State is also coordinating with aid agencies ahead of expected El Niño rains and flood risks. Investment and Infrastructure: Somalia is urging European investors to explore its strategic resources, while Türkiye’s planned spaceport in Somalia features in Ankara’s ambitions for a 2027 lunar mission. Food and Agriculture: Somalia and Algeria are seeking stronger cooperation on agriculture and food security, while Mogadishu and Muscat have also discussed food-security cooperation.

Climate and Agriculture: South West State is preparing for El Niño-linked floods, which could disrupt river communities and livelihoods as seasonal rains approach. Shipping and Logistics: Rising Houthi tensions around Bab el-Mandeb threaten a key trade route; disruption could push up shipping, fuel and fertilizer costs. Maritime intelligence firm Windward also counted five hijacking attempts off Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden in Q3, up from two in Q2. Space and Construction: Türkiye says construction has begun on a spaceport at Warsheikh as part of its lunar ambitions, but Somalia has not published the project’s terms. Food Security: Somalia and Algeria are seeking closer cooperation on agriculture and food security.

Shipping and Logistics: Maersk warns that forecast heavy rain and flooding could disrupt East African ports, roads and cargo routes, putting Somali supply chains at risk. Investment: Somalia is seeking European investment in natural resources and key sectors, with the prime minister highlighting the country’s coastline, minerals, livestock and agricultural potential. Space Infrastructure: Türkiye says it plans to build a spaceport in Somalia as part of its push to advance its space programme. Agriculture and Food Security: Somalia and Algeria are seeking closer cooperation on agriculture and food security, while Oman and Somalia have also discussed food security cooperation. Flood Preparedness: Somalia’s Shabelle River has breached at multiple points, prompting warnings of flood risk as responders train ahead of expected El Niño-related flooding. Maritime Security: The return of Pakistani sailors freed from Somali pirate captivity underscores the human and commercial risks facing shipping off Somalia.

Investment: Somalia is courting European investors in minerals, livestock, agriculture and infrastructure, with Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre pitching the country’s coastline and improving business environment at an EU-Somalia forum. Shipping and Logistics: Maersk warned that expected heavy rains could flood roads and disrupt ports, cargo handling and inland deliveries across East Africa, including Somalia. Climate and Agriculture: Somalia faces heightened flood risks this rainy season; the Somali Red Crescent and ICRC are training 72 responders and positioning boats along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, where flooding could displace farmers and grazing communities. Space Industry: Türkiye says its planned spaceport in Somalia is part of a push for independent launch capability, with the first phase targeting readiness in early 2027. Food Security: Somalia and Oman discussed investment and cooperation in agriculture, fisheries, livestock and food security. Maritime Security: The return of the final surviving crew members from the hijacked MT Honour 25 closes a five-month ordeal and underscores renewed piracy risks for commercial shipping off Somalia.

Maritime & Trade Risk: Maersk warned Super El Niño could disrupt East Africa shipping between Oct–Dec via flooding and damaged roads, threatening port access, inland routes, and cargo timelines. Piracy & Crew Safety: Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar said the remaining three MT Honour 25 crew are en route to Karachi after earlier landings of injured and deceased sailors, keeping Somalia’s maritime security in focus. Investment & Industry Push: Somalia’s PM Hamza Abdi Barre urged European investors to back natural resources, livestock, agriculture, and coastline-linked infrastructure, pointing to new laws and improving security. Agriculture & Food Security: Somalia and Algeria discussed expanding irrigation, water management, agricultural research, and investment to boost domestic production and resilience. Disaster Preparedness: Somali Red Crescent Society and ICRC trained 72 responders for expected El Niño floods along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, with boats staged in flood-prone areas. Regional Geopolitics: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan signaled a Red Sea governance bloc while Ethiopia rejects unilateral Nile/Red Sea linkage, raising uncertainty for cross-border trade corridors. Aviation & Vetting Concerns: FlyDubai faced scrutiny after a reported attempted intentional crash by a novice pilot, spotlighting airline hiring and safety controls. Space & Tech: Turkey announced it will build a spaceport in Somalia, tying the project to broader lunar plans and Africa’s space ambitions.

Space & Infrastructure: Türkiye says it will build a spaceport in Somalia and push lunar plans toward a 2027 launch, with talks dominated by the 77th International Astronautical Congress in Antalya. Red Sea & Trade Security: Multiple reports warn that Yemen’s Bab al-Mandab fighting could widen into a broader chokepoint crisis, raising shipping and commodity costs for the Horn and beyond. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan signal a new Red Sea governance front, while Ethiopia disputes Nile and Red Sea links and calls for account of its geographic interests. Food Security & Water: Somalia and Algeria expand agriculture and irrigation cooperation; Oman and Somalia discuss food security partnerships; and SRCS with ICRC trains 72 responders for expected El Niño floods along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Shipping & Safety: Pakistan says all surviving crew from the MT Honour 25 pirate attack have been rescued and moved toward repatriation. Investment & Industry: Somalia’s president joins a U.S.-hosted forum on financing Africa’s critical-minerals value chain, aiming to move from mining to refining and manufacturing.

Flood Preparedness: Somalia’s Red Crescent Society, with ICRC support, is training 72 responders (including 60 volunteers) for expected El Niño flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, with boats staged in flood-prone areas like Bardere, Jowhar, Beletweyne and Kismayo. Water Risk Management: SODMA warns the Shabelle River has breached at 366 critical points, citing decades of poor maintenance and insecurity that blocks dredging and clearing. Space & Industry: Türkiye’s Erdoğan announced a plan to build a spaceport in Somalia, while the 77th International Astronautical Congress in Antalya highlighted satellite and lunar ambitions and a new Ankara space technology park. Maritime Security & Trade: All seven surviving Pakistani crew members from the MT Honour 25 pirate attack have been rescued and are being flown back via Addis Ababa, after five crew deaths and multiple injuries. Regional Trade & Ports: Somalia and Saudi Arabia discussed expanding trade, investment and Red Sea security cooperation in Mogadishu. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia signaled a new alignment on Red Sea governance and Nile water principles in Alamein, while Ethiopia counters that any Abay and Red Sea talks must reflect its geographic interests.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia met in New Alamein and issued an Alamein Joint Declaration backing freedom of navigation and saying Red Sea governance belongs to littoral states, while rejecting unilateral moves that could harm downstream Nile water uses and rejecting any support for Somaliland. Ethiopia Pushback: Ethiopia’s foreign ministry responded that any Abay/Blue Nile and Red Sea discussions must reflect Ethiopia’s geographic role and “legitimate national interests,” keeping the Nile–Red Sea linkage at the center of the dispute. Regional Security Alliance: The summit is framed as a loose four-nation front amid Ethiopia’s renewed fighting and wider instability, with follow-up coordination mechanisms highlighted. Space & Industry Link: Türkiye’s Erdogan announced plans to build a spaceport in Somalia and said Türkiye is pressing ahead in the global space race, while the 77th International Astronautical Congress in Antalya focused on commercialization of orbit. Maritime Risk & Trade: Somalia’s Shabelle River breaches at 366 points raise flood risk, while piracy remains a shipping cost threat in the western Indian Ocean; Puntland also reported continued recovery and repatriation linked to the MT Honour 25 incident. Somalia-Israel Row: Somalia reiterated it rejects Israeli military presence “under any circumstances,” drawing pushback from Somaliland over who controls foreign relations. Business Platform Angle: Coverage of the Alamein Africa Forum emphasized turning political meetings into recurring business platforms, with local manufacturing and investment finance a key theme.

Water & Flood Risk: SODMA says the Shabelle River has breached at 366 critical points, with decades of silt buildup and long-delayed dredging raising flood danger—made harder by al-Shabaab influence along parts of the river. Maritime Security & Costs: Piracy is back in the western Indian Ocean, with six hijackings since April pushing up import-risk for Kenya and landlocked neighbors; Puntland says ransoms were paid for some vessels, while the Asana tanker remains held. Red Sea Governance & Nile Politics: Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia issued the Alamein Joint Declaration rejecting unilateral moves that harm Nile water uses and asserting Red Sea governance for coastal states—while also backing Somalia’s unity and rejecting interference and “so-called Somaliland.” Somalia–Ethiopia Port Talks: Somalia says Ethiopia can use two or three Somali ports for commercial trade under Somali sovereignty, keeping the Ankara-style access framework separate from any sovereignty transfer. Israel Presence Row: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reiterated Somalia will not accept an Israeli military foothold in Berbera or elsewhere, drawing a sharp response from Somaliland. Blue Economy: Tanzania is set to host COP12 for the Nairobi Convention on marine conservation, targeting pollution, illegal fishing and coastal ecosystem protection. Health & Industry: A Somalia cancer-focused report points to environmental contamination risks and calls for local diagnostics and treatment capacity.

Red Sea & Port Access: Somalia says it will allow Ethiopia to use two or three Somali ports only under Somali sovereignty, after leaders met in Addis Ababa and reiterated the Ankara Declaration framework. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt hosted a four-way Alamein summit with Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan to coordinate on Red Sea governance and Nile rights, while Egypt again pushed for a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute. Horn-of-Africa Security: Ethiopia escalated against Eritrea by closing its embassy in Asmara and expelling 10 diplomats, as fighting in Tigray and wider instability threaten regional trade routes. Shipping Under Pressure: Iran’s strikes kept hitting tankers near key sea lanes, while Somali pirate recovery efforts continued to dominate headlines around the hijacked MT Honour 25. Piracy Aftermath: Injured and deceased crew from MT Honour 25 were repatriated to Pakistan via Karachi, highlighting the human cost and ongoing maritime risk. Somalia’s Business Climate: Somalia faces a cash crunch that is squeezing the financial system, with fuel and freight costs rising amid broader disruptions. Telecom Jobs: Golis Telecom Somalia posted a vacancy for an Internal Auditor to strengthen governance and controls.